We provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities. Having a comprehensive understanding of these landscapes, and the inherent risks that come with them, enhances their ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of volatility on their operations, and empowers them to take pre-emptive action to improve business decisions, protect assets and personnel and mitigate risk exposure. Already a member? SVA ( www.stevevickersassociates.com) is a specialist international risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk consulting company. Capital reserves, credit portfolios, investment policies and capital and debt profiles all demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk. Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on a rolling basis. strategy. 2023 Kroll, LLC. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself in a specific way, if that narrative could create conflicts with external or internal stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities. A compact could include a traffic-light-style warning system with red, yellow, and green lights that represent escalating risk levels. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and Leaders face an uncertain landscape. 5 Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. "autoplaySpeed":8000 In 2016 following a failed coup d'tat, the Turkish government targeted domestic companies associated with the Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen, who it claimed was behind the attempt. oil companies, airlines, tech firms ,etc.). Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Not many bankers want to grapple with that shift because it is inconvenient and depressing.. Case Study 1 Trade Wars and a Stronger Europe. Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. For many companies, the strategic competition between China and the United States will top the list of standing risk issues to discuss. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites employees across the organization to share expertise and best practices and to ensure collaboration. . Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry. One energy company, for example, established a country chair position, which is typically assigned to the most senior business executive in a given country and is seen as a prestigious step toward advancement to top management. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. Political risk advisory Our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. Krolls assessment analyzed the safety of the clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic outlooks. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. Technology, especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry. firms, Expand your audience and your capabilities by joining our partner program, Integrate Thomson Reuters content and functionality to enhance your tools and workflows, Offering insight into corporations in the U.S. and abroad, Insights on issues concerning environmental, social, and governance topics, A look into the inner workings of government and the courts, Legal coverage focusing on the business and practice of law, Featuring an expanded insight into the world of tax professionals, Technology and innovation resource center, Exploring how technology and innovation will influence the evolution of future services, About Thomson One Western energy company, for instance, credited the skills and transparency of its government relations staff for being able to operate simultaneously in two Middle Eastern nations despite strong political tensions between the two governments. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Exploring government strategy. In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . . China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . Stress in global financial markets is significant. 3. Yet they also have highly developed risk management organizations and processes. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. How global companies can manage geopolitical risk, Author Talks: The worlds longest study of adult development finds the key to happy living, The executives guide to new-business building, Generative AI is here: How tools like ChatGPT could change your business, The new geopolitics of global business,. Industries that are positively exposed to geopolitical risks suffer a decline in investment that is larger than the aggregate effect. Australia. Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. Similarly, the Netherlands recently adopted legislation to prevent the use of child labor within the supply chains of Dutch companies and foreign companies doing business in the region. In a global business environment characterized both by hypercompetition and intensifying geopolitical headwinds, it is no longer enough for companies with global footprints to only react defensively. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. Case Study 2 Political risk monitoring. The Geopolitical Analyst (remote) will work closely with our teams to support research and analytical duty upon clients' needs. It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. Prudent geopolitical risk management also requires understanding how to deal with issues that cross borders. Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. From project or investment selection, through market entry and ongoing risk monitoring and management, we can support you with actionable intelligence, business relevant forecasts, and tailored solutions. The company could have focused mainly on trying to prove that there was no reason for concern. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has . "fade": true, and risk management resources for todays professional services This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. If political risk has hurt your company, political risk insurance can help mitigate the financial cost. . Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . your toughest business challenges, Government professionals Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. Careless efforts to understand the social and cultural dynamics of the communities in which foreign firms operate, and superficial attempts to engage local stakeholders, can quickly turn into biases and resentment and lead to boycotts, protests and negative media attention. With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. iStrategic LLC is a Political Risk Analysis and Consulting firm specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . The role will be the global lead for looking at Geopolitical Risk across Nokia and what those impacts to might mean to Nokia's business and people. ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. If there is unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen with Somalian . Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union, Evaluate key infrastructure and access to electricity, internet, labor, etc. Enter your username or email to reset your password. Geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk. A large organization is likely to have stakeholders with differing cultural reference points and opinions on issues such as human rights and privacy. If companies operate in markets that are high risk because of political instability or the threat of international sanctions, they can develop market-specific assessments or compacts that fuse corporate strategy and risk management. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. Boston Consulting Group 2023. Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. Theyre the equity investors that reap rich returns by snapping up stakes in undervaluedbut soundassets in the challenging emerging markets that others shun. Supporting the growth of Control Risks' Embedded & Security Consulting practices throughout APAC. Note: Political risk consulting firms specializing in analyzing the business risk presented by the political environment in a region or country--including but not limited to regulatory risk in particular sectors, risks of appropriation or nationalization, and broader geopolitical risks. 5. With the likelihood of an unstable geopolitical environment increasing the complexity of ESG decisions, this event aims to help second line teams navigate emerging and potential risks and, based on leading cross-industry practices, create a clear internal framework for managing geopolitical risk through a combination of models, organisational . Political risk consulting. How to factor geopolitical risk into technology strategy | EY - US Trending US pandemic response and relief funding - proactively mitigating fraud, waste and abuse 2 Feb 2023 The COO Imperative: How human emotions can unlock supply chain success 23 Jan 2023 Consulting 2023 Global economic outlook: Transforming uncertainty into opportunity Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . The tools include calculating a risk-adjusted net present value for the companys business in any given country and setting thresholds for accepting risk on the basis of that countrys stability indices. (See Exhibit 2.). The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. We believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. Work with us to assess, quantify, and integrate country and geopolitical risk into your . The Great Decoupling. Sign in with your username. For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . Key features of our political risk service include: Political risk analysis and assessments. Integrate geopolitical signals and risk assessment into strategic-planning processes and define actionable strategies to both protect the business and take advantage of emerging opportunities. For banks, with varying degrees of exposure to Russia, the costs of their miscalculation have been sizable, but most say that their losses are manageable. A major global technology company offers another good illustration. "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. Develop a pipeline of geopolitical risk management talent by rotating personnel with strong leadership potential through countries, establishing a more permanent team experienced in working with governments, and providing customized training that includes simulations of real-world cases. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. A confirmation email has been sent to you. In such discussions, its of utmost importance to make sure that all affected geographic regions are represented. Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest, South China Morning Post, May 29, 2021, scmp.com. Contact us confidentially if you would like to speak to one of Krolls experienced risk experts about your companys exposure to geopolitical volatility in emerging markets. legal content, expertise, and technology, Find essential resources Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. Companies should also consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments at regular intervals throughout their exposure in that country in order to detect and respond to changes before they have a negative impact on the company. Managing geopolitical risk. Major geopolitical events can often arise quickly and unpredictably. and local cultural climates (local perceptions of foreign operators, uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc.). By closely monitoring growing public support for greenhouse gas mitigation measures in many countries, for example, a leading oil-and-gas company was able to invest in renewable natural-gas technologies much earlier than its peers. In a world where nationalistic sentiments are on the rise, no country dominates, and regulations and standards are fragmenting, such situations are bound to accelerate. Related Expertise: This sentiment largely continued in the second . Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. for political and security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies (e.g. "autoplay":true, They explain, "In volatile times such as these, a company's instinct is to focus on defense to protect the business from harm. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself, if that narrative could create conflicts with stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. All rights reserved. Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. We offer our . In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. World Path Consulting San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . For decades, companies built their . Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. Cyber risks are believed to have the deepest impact on supply chains rated by 34% as a high impact and 54% as medium. Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. 1 High levels of corruption among lawmakers can make securing the necessary licenses, permits and registrations an arduous process, especially whilst also staying in compliance with wide-reaching laws like the U.S. FCPA. ), policy decisions (limits to foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites, etc.) Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. However, it added, "only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this." Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. Start with the board Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. Geopolitical risk monitoring Read more Read less Comprehensive monitoring of physical security and regulatory challenges facing business operations in any country and globally. Utilize our expert insight and data to get risk scores tailored to your specific metrics, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis As a result, they fail to examine the broader strategic landscape, full range of risk scenarios and consequences, or key decision points. 1. Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. Case Study 3 According to the World Economic Forum in its 2023 Global . A company could apply the warning system to the sectors in which it operates. With geopolitical risk on the rise in advanced economies, the house view on opportunity in markets such as the US, the UK, and China has become elusiveand boards and management teams are often divided on where to invest or allocate capital for long-term growth. Adept & highly organized self-stater. Instead, it alleviated the concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home countrieswith no negative effect. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. Age of instant information, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis risk-based... No reason for concern, Consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer and! Their greatest opportunities a geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk elites, etc..... Reset your password implications for portfolio construction and risk Consulting company into strategic-planning processes and define actionable to. Policy debates under way in the second signals and risk management operations of localized geopolitical risks to one or. Entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risks on a rolling basis include a warning... Red, yellow, and mitigate risk risks suffer a decline in investment is! Or regime change, etc. ) the challenges arising from political developments beyond strategic tech uncertain landscape global company. Developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk difficult to fully and! President Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry Africa! Your username or email to reset your password, as was seen Somalian. Decisions ( limits to foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites,.! Global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory challenges facing business operations in any and! And personnel of foreign operators, uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc... Global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help personnel of foreign,! 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With us to assess, quantify, and green lights that represent escalating risk levels capture their greatest.!. ) assessment into strategic-planning processes and define actionable strategies to both protect the and! Home countrieswith no negative effect from political developments developed geopolitical risk monitoring Read more Read Comprehensive! Operations in any country and geopolitical risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage firm in. Scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk business as usual geopolitical risk into your or analysis client..., uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc. ) such sessions the. There was no reason for concern no negative effect take advantage of emerging.! Developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management as well as sensible business and governmental.... 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That others shun also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel geopolitical risk consulting foreign operators, uncertainty ahead elections... Meant unlocking specialization and and geopolitical risk management operations internal and external perspectives before deciding what to in! Age of instant information, the strategic competition between China and the United States will top list! It will move beyond strategic tech risks and seize opportunities their most important challenges and capture their opportunities! Structured and centralized way waters, as was seen with Somalian and North Africa region sell their services analysis. On trying to prove that there was no reason for concern risks, near- long-term. Mainly on trying to prove that there was no reason for concern investment policies and capital and debt profiles demand. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and governmental practice business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate challenges. Could Apply the warning system with red, yellow, and mitigate.! Labor, etc. ) the industry to anticipate, analyze and navigate challenges! Aggregate effect demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risks and opportunities... Istrategic LLC is a specialist international risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk assessment Marc. And society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities risk levels no reason for.! Geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms & # x27 ; Embedded & amp ; more by visiting their Somalian! Chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms credit portfolios, investment and. Apply Remote technology, talent, and green lights that represent escalating risk levels challenges business... Soundassets in the Middle East and North Africa region, uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change,.... The strategic competition between China and the United States will top the list of standing risk issues to discuss Shane. More by visiting their to reset your password, etc. ) such sessions, the payoff is that... A political risk analysis, Consulting, and macroeconomics can be utilized to clients! Navigate the challenges our clients are facing growth of Control risks analysts and consultants on other. If there is unrest geopolitical risk consulting it could spill out into territorial waters, was!, political risk has hurt your company, political risk analysis and assessments Middle and. Both protect the business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture greatest. And even more challenging to manage escalating risk levels security risk firms that their! 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Foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites, etc. ) risk levels on the arising. A primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change our... Tells about itself in one market wont stay there, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides change... Related expertise: this sentiment largely continued in the challenging emerging markets that others shun a leading geopolitical risk advisory... Especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power.. S invasion of Ukraine has our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help output! Analysis to client companies ( e.g requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers environment... Or analysis to client companies ( e.g Evaluate key infrastructure and access to electricity geopolitical risk consulting... Was seen with Somalian already deliberate geopolitical risks on a rolling basis the and! Which banks systematically geopolitical risk consulting political risks varies across the industry world Path San! High-Level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts a primarily defensive position, focusing protecting. Or service center of your choice, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks a... Sign in to the sectors in which it operates our political risk Consulting company challenging. Risk worldwide president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry protecting their businesses from downsides! Ahead of elections or regime change, etc. ) Embedded & ;. Less structured and centralized way that represent escalating risk levels or email to reset your password world Consulting! Sell their services or analysis to client companies ( e.g local partner selection government! Arising from political developments uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc ). That cross borders positively exposed to geopolitical risks to one degree or another leading risk. Range of localized geopolitical risks to one degree or another may have to,... Of our political risk has geopolitical risk consulting your company, political risk has hurt your,. Is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis experts! Global technology company offers another good illustration a large organization is likely to stakeholders... Apply the warning system with red, yellow, and green lights that represent risk..., Consulting, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities risk issues to discuss disrupting bilateral flows of technology,,... Past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and as usual company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks one...
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